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NHC Forecast Advisory


TCMAT5
HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
0900Z SUN NOV 04 2001
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA...
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE BERRY
ISLANDS... BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT
ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  83.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE 125SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  83.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  83.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N  82.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 125SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.4N  80.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.1N  77.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N  83.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 27.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.0N  62.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 WWWW

Last updated: 09/10/12